A Simulation Run Three Months Ago Predicts That Coronavirus Could Possibly Kill 65 Million People

Source: Business Insider

As of January 24, the deadly outbreak known as the coronavirus from China has already killed 26 people and infected more than 900.

Although according to a simulation that was conducted only three months ago, things could get even worse, and quick. 


According to Business Insider, a scientist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, Eric Toner, ran a simulation about a global pandemic of the exact same type of virus less than three months ago,. 

The simulation predicted that nearly 65 million people will die in an 18 month period.

“I have thought for a long time that the most likely virus that might cause a new pandemic would be a coronavirus,” he said 

At this moment, the outbreak is not yet pandemic, although it has already been reported to reach eight different countries in less than a month. Toner’s simulation showed that within six months, the deadly virus would reach nearly “every country in the world.”

“We don’t yet know how contagious it is. We know that it is being spread person to person, but we don’t know to what extent. An initial first impression is that this is significantly milder than SARS. So that’s reassuring. On the other hand, it may be more transmissible than SARS, at least in the community setting,” he said. 

Source: https://www.sciencealert.com/


Toner’s analysis made use of a fictional virus that is resistant to any modern vaccine and deadlier than SARS. This simulation virus that originated in Brazil’s pig farms was named CAPS. The outbreak would start small, with pig farms feeling flu-like symptoms, before it spreads to impoverished areas. 

The simulation also included how flights would be cancelled and travel bookings would fall to 45% as people would read false reports on social media. It also showed a financial crisis around the globe that would have an 11% GDP drop, as well as a 20-40% drop in the international stock market. 

The scientist also claimed that the real and dangerous coronavirus could create a major economic impact once the cases hit more than a thousand people. 

 “If we could make it so that we could have a vaccine within months rather than years or decades, that would be a game changer. But it’s not just the identification of potential vaccines. We need to think even more about how they are manufactured on a global scale and distributed and administered to people. It’s part of the world we live in now. We’re in an age of epidemics,” he concluded.

Meanwhile, the CDC in the United States is assuring everybody that there is no need for concern.

“We don’t want the American public to be worried about this because their risk is low,” says Anthony Fauci, head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. “On the other hand, we are taking this very seriously and are dealing very closely with Chinese authorities.”

Hopefully, they are right, and the outbreak will be contained to those that are already suffering it, and no one else. 

 

 

 

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